GOP Gains Ground In Voter Roles
Democrats think strategy as Republican ranks swell in Florida.
By Joe Follick
Tallahassee Bureau
TALLAHASSEE -- While there are still more Democratic voters in Florida, Republicans have registered more voters since the 2000 election in 54 of the state's 67 counties.
And a New York Times Regional Newspaper Group analysis of state data shows the gains have been especially dramatic in North Florida's Panhandle, where Democrats have lost 10,000 registered voters since 2000, despite gaining nearly 480,000 registered voters in the rest of the state.
Behind the numbers is a debate among Democrats about how much effort should be invested in wooing conservative Panhandle voters.
In an area more akin to Alabama or Georgia than the rest of Florida, the Panhandle has become the most solid Republican portion of the state.
A group led by state Sen. Dave Aronberg, D-Greenacres, called the Florida Mainstream Democrats has made winning the hearts and minds of rural Floridians their goal for next year's election.
He and others tout a more conservative message from Democrats that tones down support for hot button issues like gun control and abortion.
Bolstering that quest for the political middle is the biggest change in Florida's voters -- the explosion of those registering with neither major party.
According to state elections records, there were about 4.3 million registered Democrats last month compared with more than 3.9 million Republicans.
Due to increased voter registration efforts, Democrats had a 12.2 percent increase since 2000 while Republicans had a 14.9 percent increase that gave them a net gain over Democrats of about 46,000 statewide.
But, echoing a national trend, voters registering with minor parties or with no party affiliation jumped 46 percent since 2000 to more than 2.2 million.
"Independents are turned off by partisanship. They're upset at both (parties') extremes, and they're more up for grabs than ever," Aronberg said.
He cites the general disdain among the public toward the Gov. Jeb Bush-led effort last year to thwart numerous court rulings that ended the life of Terri Schiavo.
"The Republican Party has been dominated by these social conservatives and pushing that agenda turns off independents," he said. "Now it's up to the Democrats to attract those voters. It would be a greatly missed opportunity if we didn't appeal to them."
Longtime political scientist Lance deHaven-Smith from Florida State University said that with fewer Democrats in conservative North Florida, Democrats might end up adopting a more liberal tone that is distinct from the Republican message.
He cited Democratic gains among Hispanic voters in Orange County as well as widening dominance in the traditional party strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
"I think you are going to see the party become more ideologically distinct," he said. "I think Democrats are moving to the left because they don't need to have the Panhandle as much as they used to, and they can win as long as they get their base inspired."
Sen. Walter "Skip" Campbell, D-Fort Lauderdale, said he disagrees "1,000 percent" with that assessment. Campbell, a Mainstream Democrats member and the lone Democratic candidate for next year's attorney general race, said the idea that South Florida Democrats are ultra-liberal is wrong.
"I think the way to win the election is to show people that you're a moderate, that you're not going to either extreme," Campbell said.
The Mainstream Democrats have pushed the gubernatorial candidacy of Alachua state Sen. Rod Smith, a conservative Democrat with a strong law-and-order background that would seem to favor him among North Florida voters.
But with the loss of Panhandle Democrats, combined with fewer Democrats voting in other parts of North Florida, such an appeal could cost him in a Democratic primary when only those registered with the party can vote.
Since 2000, counties that Smith represents in the Florida Senate gained about 20,000 registered Democrats. But in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, the base of his opponent U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, Democrats added nearly 50,000 registered voters.
Every vote may count. In the 2002 primary, Bill McBride defeated Janet Reno by about 5,000 votes.
Smith campaign manager Paul Neaville said one-fourth of the state's Democrats are in North Florida, retaining the area's importance in a primary. He added that Smith is spending quite a bit of his campaign in South Florida, where a number of local officials have endorsed his candidacy.
"Democratic primary voters everywhere have the resounding core message of quality education and better jobs and accessible health care. Those resonate no matter what your region is," he said. "We can't win Florida without winning in more than one place. Our plan is not to just position ourselves in North Florida, we plan to be competitive everywhere."
Neaville and other Smith backers say his strength in North Florida may not pay off in the primary. But it could prove the difference in the general election versus a Republican.
Bush and other Republicans have adopted an odd public stance of openly predicting a stronger Democratic presence in the state. Republicans hold every Cabinet seat and a two-to-one majority in the House and Senate.
House Speaker Allan Bense, RPanama City, has watched his home -- Bay County -- shift from a Democratic advantage of 10,000 registered voters in 2000 to a 7,000 Republican advantage now.
Bense said a stronger Democratic presence would help prevent Republicans from becoming apathetic and intellectually lazy.
"I want to see a good, resilient Democratic Party," he said. "I love a good challenge. They just clearly have not gotten their message across here in the Panhandle."
Bense, however, has agreed to use taxpayer funds to fight a plan that would create a non-partisan commission to reassess how legislative districts are drawn. Despite the greater number of Democrats in the state, they only hold one-third of the legislative seats, hindered by electoral maps drawn by Republicans to favor their own party.
While only gaining more voters than Republicans in 14 counties since 2000, Democrats have made gains in a few Republican strongholds. They achieved a net gain of more than 20,000 voters in both Pinellas and Orange counties. And in conservative Sarasota County, Democrats outgained Republicans by 7,000 new registered voters since 2000.
Former Sarasota County Democratic chairman Harold Miller attributed the gain to grassroots work that turned out voters and reversed a "can't win" attitude.
He said the local party opened up three headquarters in visible areas around the county last year and targeted registered independent voters to vote for John Kerry in last year's election. As a result, Miller said Kerry received more votes in the county than the number of registered Democrats.
"For years the Democrats in Sarasota just didn't seem to have any vision at all," he said. "All of this (voter registration increase) was telling Democrats that we're here and we have a fighting chance."
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By Joe Follick
Tallahassee Bureau
TALLAHASSEE -- While there are still more Democratic voters in Florida, Republicans have registered more voters since the 2000 election in 54 of the state's 67 counties.
And a New York Times Regional Newspaper Group analysis of state data shows the gains have been especially dramatic in North Florida's Panhandle, where Democrats have lost 10,000 registered voters since 2000, despite gaining nearly 480,000 registered voters in the rest of the state.
Behind the numbers is a debate among Democrats about how much effort should be invested in wooing conservative Panhandle voters.
In an area more akin to Alabama or Georgia than the rest of Florida, the Panhandle has become the most solid Republican portion of the state.
A group led by state Sen. Dave Aronberg, D-Greenacres, called the Florida Mainstream Democrats has made winning the hearts and minds of rural Floridians their goal for next year's election.
He and others tout a more conservative message from Democrats that tones down support for hot button issues like gun control and abortion.
Bolstering that quest for the political middle is the biggest change in Florida's voters -- the explosion of those registering with neither major party.
According to state elections records, there were about 4.3 million registered Democrats last month compared with more than 3.9 million Republicans.
Due to increased voter registration efforts, Democrats had a 12.2 percent increase since 2000 while Republicans had a 14.9 percent increase that gave them a net gain over Democrats of about 46,000 statewide.
But, echoing a national trend, voters registering with minor parties or with no party affiliation jumped 46 percent since 2000 to more than 2.2 million.
"Independents are turned off by partisanship. They're upset at both (parties') extremes, and they're more up for grabs than ever," Aronberg said.
He cites the general disdain among the public toward the Gov. Jeb Bush-led effort last year to thwart numerous court rulings that ended the life of Terri Schiavo.
"The Republican Party has been dominated by these social conservatives and pushing that agenda turns off independents," he said. "Now it's up to the Democrats to attract those voters. It would be a greatly missed opportunity if we didn't appeal to them."
Longtime political scientist Lance deHaven-Smith from Florida State University said that with fewer Democrats in conservative North Florida, Democrats might end up adopting a more liberal tone that is distinct from the Republican message.
He cited Democratic gains among Hispanic voters in Orange County as well as widening dominance in the traditional party strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
"I think you are going to see the party become more ideologically distinct," he said. "I think Democrats are moving to the left because they don't need to have the Panhandle as much as they used to, and they can win as long as they get their base inspired."
Sen. Walter "Skip" Campbell, D-Fort Lauderdale, said he disagrees "1,000 percent" with that assessment. Campbell, a Mainstream Democrats member and the lone Democratic candidate for next year's attorney general race, said the idea that South Florida Democrats are ultra-liberal is wrong.
"I think the way to win the election is to show people that you're a moderate, that you're not going to either extreme," Campbell said.
The Mainstream Democrats have pushed the gubernatorial candidacy of Alachua state Sen. Rod Smith, a conservative Democrat with a strong law-and-order background that would seem to favor him among North Florida voters.
But with the loss of Panhandle Democrats, combined with fewer Democrats voting in other parts of North Florida, such an appeal could cost him in a Democratic primary when only those registered with the party can vote.
Since 2000, counties that Smith represents in the Florida Senate gained about 20,000 registered Democrats. But in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, the base of his opponent U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, Democrats added nearly 50,000 registered voters.
Every vote may count. In the 2002 primary, Bill McBride defeated Janet Reno by about 5,000 votes.
Smith campaign manager Paul Neaville said one-fourth of the state's Democrats are in North Florida, retaining the area's importance in a primary. He added that Smith is spending quite a bit of his campaign in South Florida, where a number of local officials have endorsed his candidacy.
"Democratic primary voters everywhere have the resounding core message of quality education and better jobs and accessible health care. Those resonate no matter what your region is," he said. "We can't win Florida without winning in more than one place. Our plan is not to just position ourselves in North Florida, we plan to be competitive everywhere."
Neaville and other Smith backers say his strength in North Florida may not pay off in the primary. But it could prove the difference in the general election versus a Republican.
Bush and other Republicans have adopted an odd public stance of openly predicting a stronger Democratic presence in the state. Republicans hold every Cabinet seat and a two-to-one majority in the House and Senate.
House Speaker Allan Bense, RPanama City, has watched his home -- Bay County -- shift from a Democratic advantage of 10,000 registered voters in 2000 to a 7,000 Republican advantage now.
Bense said a stronger Democratic presence would help prevent Republicans from becoming apathetic and intellectually lazy.
"I want to see a good, resilient Democratic Party," he said. "I love a good challenge. They just clearly have not gotten their message across here in the Panhandle."
Bense, however, has agreed to use taxpayer funds to fight a plan that would create a non-partisan commission to reassess how legislative districts are drawn. Despite the greater number of Democrats in the state, they only hold one-third of the legislative seats, hindered by electoral maps drawn by Republicans to favor their own party.
While only gaining more voters than Republicans in 14 counties since 2000, Democrats have made gains in a few Republican strongholds. They achieved a net gain of more than 20,000 voters in both Pinellas and Orange counties. And in conservative Sarasota County, Democrats outgained Republicans by 7,000 new registered voters since 2000.
Former Sarasota County Democratic chairman Harold Miller attributed the gain to grassroots work that turned out voters and reversed a "can't win" attitude.
He said the local party opened up three headquarters in visible areas around the county last year and targeted registered independent voters to vote for John Kerry in last year's election. As a result, Miller said Kerry received more votes in the county than the number of registered Democrats.
"For years the Democrats in Sarasota just didn't seem to have any vision at all," he said. "All of this (voter registration increase) was telling Democrats that we're here and we have a fighting chance."
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