Missteps threaten House GOP rule
Polls indicate grass-roots anger
By Susan Milligan and Rick Klein, Globe Staff | April 9, 2006
WASHINGTON -- The Iraq war, gas prices, scandals, and now simple ineffectiveness -- most recently the failure to reach an immigration deal and budget accord -- have put the Republican Party in serious danger of losing its majority status in the House of Representatives this year and ending the one-party rule President Bush has enjoyed for most of his presidency, according to independent pollsters and officials in both parties.
Results of an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Friday indicated that Americans would prefer a Democrat-led House by the largest margin in recent history, 49 percent to 33 percent. And state chairmen of both parties say they are detecting the kind of grass-roots anger that flares only once every decade or two.
The Democrats' opportunities are limited by carefully drawn congressional district lines that favor sitting congressmen, but both Democrats and Republicans agree that the minority party has its best chance to flip control of the House, which has a 29-seat Republican majority, since the GOP surged to power in 1994.
A ''cacophony" of bad news -- from the failure of Social Security reform to the war in Iraq to the botched response to Hurricane Katrina -- imperils the GOP's chances, said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster.
''It seems like it's been one misstep after another," Fabrizio said. ''It's lousy. The national political environment is not hospitable to Republicans." Even the Republicans' signature strength -- national security -- appears to have weakened after having helped the party elect more House members in 2002 and 2004, he said.
''Anybody who tells you that this year is even comparable [to 2002 or 2004] is smoking crack," Fabrizio said.
Across the country, party officials and pollsters report a public clamor for change.
Changing control of the House would greatly imperil the remainder of the Bush agenda, as well as impose oversight and challenges to administration policy the president has rarely faced during his time in office.
In the Northeast, moderate Republicans face being punished for simply being part of the ruling party. Several -- such as 10-term Representative Christopher Shays, Republican of Connecticut, who appeared with Bush in his district on Wednesday -- are under fire for their support of the Iraq war.
In upstate New York, half a dozen Republican-held seats could be in play, because of Bush's unpopularity and popular Democratic statewide candidates who could draw voters to the polls, including gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In Ohio, corruption scandals involving Republican Governor Bob Taft and a GOP member of Congress, Representative Bob Ney, fuel Democrats' argument that the Republicans have abused their power.
In several states, including Illinois, Arizona, and Colorado, the unexpected retirements of longtime GOP representatives give Democrats unanticipated opportunities to pick up seats in places where constituents might have been reluctant to throw out a long-serving lawmaker, but might vote for change in an open race.
In the Southwest, a fiery battle over immigration is dividing Republican voters, and may lead some to sit out the midterm elections. And in the Mountain West -- where demographic changes are aiding Democrats -- independent-minded voters are angry about the budget deficits and increased government surveillance allowed under the USA Patriot Act, according to political specialists.
''They've definitely got a tailwind" because of the federal budget deficit and voter worries over their personal finances, Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli said of the Democrats. Colorado voters, who flipped control of both houses of the Legislature in 2004 and elected two new Democrats to Congress, may well send another Democrat to the House after the fall elections, he said.
''The Democrats are hungry, the Republicans are dispirited, and in this state, they are very divided," Ciruli said.
While unpopular nationally, Bush can still be hugely helpful to certain candidates by raising money and turning out the hard-core Republican base. But voters may register their frustration with Bush, who is not on the ticket, by ousting GOP congressmen, analysts say, greatly raising the hopes of Democrats who had worried that Republicans might achieve their goal of a near-permanent congressional majority.
Anti-Bush sentiment in Nevada -- a state that no Democratic presidential candidate except Bill Clinton has won -- could help Democrats pick up two of the state's three congressional seats, said Jon Ralston, an independent political analyst.
''Bush's numbers here are abysmal, and that's hurting [Republicans] to some extent," he said.
Democrats say they hope to stitch together enough victories in states as varied as Nevada, Ohio, and New York to achieve the 15-seat gain they would need to assume control. Some Democrats speak of a tidal wave similar to the one in 1994, when the GOP picked up a stunning 53 seats, even defeating House Speaker Thomas P. Foley, Democrat of Washington. But most say they would be thrilled just to have the majority again after 12 years.
''History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes," said Representative Edward Markey, Democrat of Malden, quoting Mark Twain. Just as voters in liberal Massachusetts inserted balance in their state government by electing Republican governors, voters nationally are tiring on one-party rule in Washington, he said.
And since Bush will be in the White House until January 2009, the only way voters can restore divided government is by voting for Democratic congressional candidates.
''It's building up to a pretty big anti-Bush, anti-incumbency, anti-Republican congressional leadership dynamic here," said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic pollster in California. While 2000 redistricting favored Republicans, ''if you get a national tidal wave, you can blow through a lot of those problems."
Statistically, the Democrats' task appears arduous.
Examining congressional races according to common models that take into account the results of the last elections and Bush's 2004 performance in individual districts, congressional campaign specialists count approximately 30 to 40 seats in play, some of them leaning Republican.
But Democrats and independent analysts note that those numbers do not account for voter passion -- the kind that they predict could drive anti-Republican constituents to the polls and lead disgruntled Republicans to stay home.
''You can throw those [statistical] models out," said Chris Redfern, former Ohio House minority leader and the current chairman of the state's Democratic Party. ''There's a Republican fatigue going on."
National GOP officials note that the Democrats have not come up with a unified message, such as the ''Contract With America" Republicans rolled out two months before their 1994 sweep. And state party leaders say that if they focus voters' attentions on the individual candidates and local matters, instead of Bush and national issues, they can hang onto their majority.
''If we had a presidential election this election cycle, I would be extremely concerned. But this next election is going to be decided on a district-by-district basis," said Matt Salmon, a former US representative from Arizona and the state's current GOP party chairman.
Mark Weaver, a GOP consultant in Columbus, Ohio, acknowledged that Republicans in his state are in trouble because of corruption scandals, the war, and Bush's unpopularity.
But he said the state's long-dominant GOP operation has a far more sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort than the Democrats', and that they would be able to turn out thousands of loyal voters and hang on to imperiled congressional seats.
Ron Kaufman, the longtime GOP national committee representative from Massachusetts, acknowledged that Republicans are growing concerned about the possibility of a Democratic ''wave" that could shift power in Washington. But he said events could change in the GOP's favor before the elections.
''The unknown question is, 'What's the climate going to be in November?' Is there concern about that? Yeah," Kaufman said. ''But time is on our side, in my opinion. I'm glad we have seven months."
By Susan Milligan and Rick Klein, Globe Staff | April 9, 2006
WASHINGTON -- The Iraq war, gas prices, scandals, and now simple ineffectiveness -- most recently the failure to reach an immigration deal and budget accord -- have put the Republican Party in serious danger of losing its majority status in the House of Representatives this year and ending the one-party rule President Bush has enjoyed for most of his presidency, according to independent pollsters and officials in both parties.
Results of an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Friday indicated that Americans would prefer a Democrat-led House by the largest margin in recent history, 49 percent to 33 percent. And state chairmen of both parties say they are detecting the kind of grass-roots anger that flares only once every decade or two.
The Democrats' opportunities are limited by carefully drawn congressional district lines that favor sitting congressmen, but both Democrats and Republicans agree that the minority party has its best chance to flip control of the House, which has a 29-seat Republican majority, since the GOP surged to power in 1994.
A ''cacophony" of bad news -- from the failure of Social Security reform to the war in Iraq to the botched response to Hurricane Katrina -- imperils the GOP's chances, said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster.
''It seems like it's been one misstep after another," Fabrizio said. ''It's lousy. The national political environment is not hospitable to Republicans." Even the Republicans' signature strength -- national security -- appears to have weakened after having helped the party elect more House members in 2002 and 2004, he said.
''Anybody who tells you that this year is even comparable [to 2002 or 2004] is smoking crack," Fabrizio said.
Across the country, party officials and pollsters report a public clamor for change.
Changing control of the House would greatly imperil the remainder of the Bush agenda, as well as impose oversight and challenges to administration policy the president has rarely faced during his time in office.
In the Northeast, moderate Republicans face being punished for simply being part of the ruling party. Several -- such as 10-term Representative Christopher Shays, Republican of Connecticut, who appeared with Bush in his district on Wednesday -- are under fire for their support of the Iraq war.
In upstate New York, half a dozen Republican-held seats could be in play, because of Bush's unpopularity and popular Democratic statewide candidates who could draw voters to the polls, including gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In Ohio, corruption scandals involving Republican Governor Bob Taft and a GOP member of Congress, Representative Bob Ney, fuel Democrats' argument that the Republicans have abused their power.
In several states, including Illinois, Arizona, and Colorado, the unexpected retirements of longtime GOP representatives give Democrats unanticipated opportunities to pick up seats in places where constituents might have been reluctant to throw out a long-serving lawmaker, but might vote for change in an open race.
In the Southwest, a fiery battle over immigration is dividing Republican voters, and may lead some to sit out the midterm elections. And in the Mountain West -- where demographic changes are aiding Democrats -- independent-minded voters are angry about the budget deficits and increased government surveillance allowed under the USA Patriot Act, according to political specialists.
''They've definitely got a tailwind" because of the federal budget deficit and voter worries over their personal finances, Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli said of the Democrats. Colorado voters, who flipped control of both houses of the Legislature in 2004 and elected two new Democrats to Congress, may well send another Democrat to the House after the fall elections, he said.
''The Democrats are hungry, the Republicans are dispirited, and in this state, they are very divided," Ciruli said.
While unpopular nationally, Bush can still be hugely helpful to certain candidates by raising money and turning out the hard-core Republican base. But voters may register their frustration with Bush, who is not on the ticket, by ousting GOP congressmen, analysts say, greatly raising the hopes of Democrats who had worried that Republicans might achieve their goal of a near-permanent congressional majority.
Anti-Bush sentiment in Nevada -- a state that no Democratic presidential candidate except Bill Clinton has won -- could help Democrats pick up two of the state's three congressional seats, said Jon Ralston, an independent political analyst.
''Bush's numbers here are abysmal, and that's hurting [Republicans] to some extent," he said.
Democrats say they hope to stitch together enough victories in states as varied as Nevada, Ohio, and New York to achieve the 15-seat gain they would need to assume control. Some Democrats speak of a tidal wave similar to the one in 1994, when the GOP picked up a stunning 53 seats, even defeating House Speaker Thomas P. Foley, Democrat of Washington. But most say they would be thrilled just to have the majority again after 12 years.
''History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes," said Representative Edward Markey, Democrat of Malden, quoting Mark Twain. Just as voters in liberal Massachusetts inserted balance in their state government by electing Republican governors, voters nationally are tiring on one-party rule in Washington, he said.
And since Bush will be in the White House until January 2009, the only way voters can restore divided government is by voting for Democratic congressional candidates.
''It's building up to a pretty big anti-Bush, anti-incumbency, anti-Republican congressional leadership dynamic here," said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic pollster in California. While 2000 redistricting favored Republicans, ''if you get a national tidal wave, you can blow through a lot of those problems."
Statistically, the Democrats' task appears arduous.
Examining congressional races according to common models that take into account the results of the last elections and Bush's 2004 performance in individual districts, congressional campaign specialists count approximately 30 to 40 seats in play, some of them leaning Republican.
But Democrats and independent analysts note that those numbers do not account for voter passion -- the kind that they predict could drive anti-Republican constituents to the polls and lead disgruntled Republicans to stay home.
''You can throw those [statistical] models out," said Chris Redfern, former Ohio House minority leader and the current chairman of the state's Democratic Party. ''There's a Republican fatigue going on."
National GOP officials note that the Democrats have not come up with a unified message, such as the ''Contract With America" Republicans rolled out two months before their 1994 sweep. And state party leaders say that if they focus voters' attentions on the individual candidates and local matters, instead of Bush and national issues, they can hang onto their majority.
''If we had a presidential election this election cycle, I would be extremely concerned. But this next election is going to be decided on a district-by-district basis," said Matt Salmon, a former US representative from Arizona and the state's current GOP party chairman.
Mark Weaver, a GOP consultant in Columbus, Ohio, acknowledged that Republicans in his state are in trouble because of corruption scandals, the war, and Bush's unpopularity.
But he said the state's long-dominant GOP operation has a far more sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort than the Democrats', and that they would be able to turn out thousands of loyal voters and hang on to imperiled congressional seats.
Ron Kaufman, the longtime GOP national committee representative from Massachusetts, acknowledged that Republicans are growing concerned about the possibility of a Democratic ''wave" that could shift power in Washington. But he said events could change in the GOP's favor before the elections.
''The unknown question is, 'What's the climate going to be in November?' Is there concern about that? Yeah," Kaufman said. ''But time is on our side, in my opinion. I'm glad we have seven months."
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