Study says gay, Lesbian, bisexual votes could decide tight Congressional races

By KERRY ELEVELD
NEW YORK BLADE

New statistics released by The Williams Institute on Sexual Orientation Law and Public Policy show that the gay, lesbian and bisexual (GLB) vote in certain districts could be large enough to decide the outcome of some the most competitive races.

"The house races are the more interesting ones," said Gary Gates, Ph.D. and senior research fellow at The Williams Institute. Gates estimated the national GLB at 4 percent and noted that two Colorado districts, the 4th and 7th, have an estimated GLB population that’s 2-3 points above the national average.

Gates said that in national races, the GLB vote splits about 75 percent Democratic and 25 percent Republican.

"Let’s say in either of those two Colorado races, a quarter of the gay vote that would have gone Republican now goes Democrat," he posited. "In both cases, that’s 1 to 2 percentage points of a population—that’s enough to swing a close race," he said.

In New York, Gates said, the same rule would apply in both the 20th and 25th districts, where the estimated GLB population approaches 5 percent.

Gates said that nationally, the estimated GLB percentage of the population mirrors that of GLB voters (4 to 5 percent). "That suggests that a gay voter is about as likely as any other voter to vote," he said.

But this year, he wondered if the gays might have a higher motivation. Comparing the 2000 and 2005 Census Bureau figures, the number of same-sex couples rose by 30 percent.

"The bulk of that increase is people being more willing to report on their surveys," Gates said. If that openness correlated with voting motivation, Gates said GLB voters might turn out in higher numbers.