Friday, November 03, 2006

State Democrats hope to match 'well-oiled' GOP machine

An anti-Republican mood nationally may help Florida Democrats on Tuesday, but they are fighting the GOP's get-out-the-vote efforts.


breinhard@MiamiHerald.com

Disgust with the war in Iraq and congressional scandals have put many voters in an anti-Republican mood, but the nationwide funk won't help Florida Democrats win Tuesday unless they get their people to the polls.

Democratic activists say they are far better organized than in past elections, when a less-than-robust turnout contributed to successive statewide defeats.

But the GOP boasts a multimillion-dollar financial edge, and party leaders say their well-honed, get-out-the-vote machine will overcome any ill will toward the political establishment.

The turnout drive cranks up today, as candidates wrap up their fundraising and focus on statewide-campaign sweeps, while the parties and special-interest groups mount a final push.

A Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday shows that Florida's marquee race to replace Gov. Jeb Bush is fairly tight, with Republican Charlie Crist leading Democrat Jim Davis by seven points. The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points.

''You don't win unless you turn your people out,'' said Stephen Gaskill, a spokesman for the statewide Democratic gay caucus, which is running a get-out-the-vote operation in Broward County. ``I don't think this is the year people will sit at home and say that it doesn't matter.''

BIG NAMES TO VISIT

Both sides plan big Miami rallies. Former President Bill Clinton will be Saturday's headliner for Davis, while former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will campaign with Crist on Sunday.

President Bush will visit Pensacola on Monday to give a pep talk to the Republican faithful, though his visit could stir up Democrats, too. Sixty percent of Florida voters rated Bush's performance as fair or poor in the Mason-Dixon survey.

Three competitive Congressional races in Florida could help tilt the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

''We have more money, we have a better ground game, we have outstanding candidates, and we're being very strategic in where we go,'' White House spokesman Tony Fratto said Thursday. ``We think you're going to see those results on Tuesday.''

The Republican National Committee is sending 50 people from Washington to hit the streets for U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw of Fort Lauderdale, and similar operations are under way for state Rep. Joe Negron, who is seeking disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley's seat, and Vern Buchanan, who is running for the Congressional seat vacated by Katherine Harris, who is running for the U.S. Senate.

''They are exceedingly organized,'' said Shaw spokeswoman Gail Gitcho. ``We're set, we're ready for it.''

Brian Smoot, campaign manager for Shaw's Democratic opponent, state Sen. Ron Klein, said the staff has been gearing up for Election Day for more than a year.

''We're certainly aware of the fact Republicans have a hallowed operation at the end, but we thought the best way to counter is with a real investment of time and resources at an early stage,'' Smoot said.

The GOP has also excelled in outreach to absentee voters. Republican absentee voters may receive as many as three mailings from the state party, plus additional fliers from candidates. Then they are likely to receive phone calls and more mailings until they return the ballots.

''We are going to touch every single registered Republican in this county,'' said Broward Republican Party Chairman Shane Strum. ``It's a well-oiled machine.''

`NIGHT AND DAY'

In contrast, Democratic absentee voters may hear from the state party only if they tend to skip mid-term elections. The party is testing its new database.

''It's night and day from what we did in 2004 and 2002,'' said Mark Bubriski, a spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party. ``Those were just blanket operations, so it's not as effective. It's very, very targeted this year.''

So far, Republicans are winning on absentee ballots, while Democrats are getting more out of early voting. In Miami-Dade and Broward, 47,716 Republicans have returned absentee ballots, compared to 27,152 Democrats. The early voting tally for the two counties is almost a mirror image: 49,294 Democrats and 27,007 Republicans.

UNION HELP

The GOP tends to run a more centralized operation, while Democrats rely more on unions and advocacy groups. The national AFL-CIO will spend $1.5 million in Florida this year -- more than it spent on the 2004 presidential election -- largely to help the Democratic party take over Congress, said the union's state political director, Deborah Dion.

The union's half-million Florida members are focused on four campaigns: helping Klein beat Shaw, helping Tim Mahoney win Foley's seat, electing Davis as governor, and defeating one of the proposed constitutional amendments. ''We can win these races. We haven't had an opportunity like this in a long time,'' Dion said at a recent gathering of 200 union leaders in Fort Lauderdale. ``It's all about turnout.''

HELPING VOTERS

Republican leaders in Miami-Dade are recruiting 300 drivers to take voters to the polls on Election Day. In Broward, the local GOP is running eight offices, up from five locations in 2004.

Miami-Dade Democratic leaders have been meeting every Wednesday in Doral to plot strategy. The Broward Democratic Party has mailed out campaign literature headlined ``Had Enough?''

''There's no doubt that we have the advantage of a head wind, but we haven't had a good record in the past few elections,'' said Bob Goldstein, vice chairman of the South Dade Democratic Club, who is helping arrange voter transportation in black neighborhoods. ``This year, we're better organized and poised to take advantage of it.''

Miami Herald staff writers Gary Fineout and Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.